Trump Sparks Speculation on Potential Candidates for Next Fed Chair
#trump #federal reserve #economy #prediction markets #interest rates
Introduction
In a recent interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box," President Trump discussed potential candidates to replace current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. He specifically mentioned Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh as frontrunners for the position, sparking speculation in the prediction markets.
Key Details
Hassett, an economist and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has been a vocal supporter of Trump's economic policies. Meanwhile, Warsh, a former Fed governor, has been critical of the central bank's policies and is seen as a more hawkish candidate.
Trump's remarks have caused a surge in betting on prediction markets, which allow people to wager on various outcomes of future events. According to one market, the odds of Hassett becoming the next Fed chair have jumped to 28%, while Warsh's odds have increased to 24%.
Impact
The possibility of a new Fed chair has significant implications for the economy and financial markets. The Fed plays a crucial role in setting monetary policy and has a major impact on interest rates, inflation, and economic growth.
If either Hassett or Warsh were to become the next Fed chair, it could signal a shift towards more conservative and aggressive policies, which could have significant consequences for the markets. The outcome of the prediction markets will be closely watched by investors and
About the People Mentioned
Donald Trump
Donald John Trump, born June 14, 1946, in Queens, New York, is an American businessman, media personality, and politician. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in 1968 with a degree in economics. In 1971, he took over his family’s real estate business, renaming it the Trump Organization, through which he expanded into building and managing skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, and golf courses. Trump gained widespread fame as the host of the reality TV show *The Apprentice* from 2004 to 2015, which helped establish his public persona as a successful entrepreneur. Trump entered politics as a Republican and was elected the 45th president of the United States, serving from 2017 to 2021. His presidency was marked by significant policy actions including tax cuts, deregulation, the appointment of three Supreme Court justices, renegotiation of trade agreements (notably replacing NAFTA with the USMCA), and a focus on immigration control including border wall expansion. He withdrew the U.S. from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord and the Iran nuclear deal, and engaged in a trade war with China. His administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was criticized for downplaying the virus’s severity. Trump was impeached twice by the House of Representatives—first in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction, and again in 2021 for incitement of insurrection—but was acquitted by the Senate both times. After losing the 2020 election to Joe Biden, Trump challenged the results, culminating in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot. He remains a central figure in American politics, having won the 2024 presidential election and returned as the 47th president in 2025, continuing to promote policies aimed at economic growth, border security, and military strength[1][2][3][4].
Jerome Powell
Jerome H. Powell is the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States, a position he has held since February 2018 following his initial appointment by President Donald Trump and subsequent reappointment by President Joe Biden for a second four-year term in May 2022[2][5]. He also chairs the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s principal monetary policymaking body[2]. Powell’s tenure spans some of the most significant economic challenges in recent U.S. history, including the post-Great Recession recovery and the financial fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic[3][6]. Born on February 4, 1953, in Washington, D.C., Powell holds an AB in politics from Princeton University (1975) and a law degree from Georgetown University (1979), where he was editor-in-chief of the Georgetown Law Journal[2]. His career before the Fed included roles as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City, a partner at The Carlyle Group (1997–2005), and a visiting scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center focusing on fiscal issues[2][5]. He served as both Assistant Secretary and Under Secretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush, with responsibilities for financial institutions and the Treasury debt market[2][5]. Powell was first nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by President Barack Obama in 2012 and assumed office in May of that year, later being reappointed for a term ending January 31, 2028[2][8]. As Fed Chair, he initially continued the policy of gradually raising interest rates—a process begun under his predecessor, Janet Yellen—to return monetary policy to more normal levels after the 2007–08 financial crisis[3]. This approach drew criticism from President Trump, who publicly opposed further rate hikes, but Powell maintained that such measures were necessary to prevent inflation and ensure long-term stability[3]. Powell’s leadership was again tested during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he led the Fed in slashing interest rates to near zero, launching emergency lending programs, and purchasing corporate debt to stabilize financial markets—actions that significantly expanded the central bank’s role in the economy[3]. Despite political pressures from both Democratic and Republican administrations, Powell has been praised for his steady, data-driven approach to monetary policy[6]. He resides in Chevy Chase, Maryland, with his wife and three children[6]. As of 2025, Powell remains a central figure in U.S. and global economic policy, overseeing the Fed’s efforts to balance inflation control with support for economic growth amid ongoing uncertainties in the financial landscape[2][5].
About the Organizations Mentioned
Federal Reserve
## Overview and Mission The Federal Reserve, often called the "Fed," is the central bank of the United States, established by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and stable monetary and financial system[1]. Its mission centers on a dual mandate from Congress: to promote maximum employment and maintain price stability, ensuring the dollar retains its value over time[1]. The Fed operates through a unique hybrid structure, combining a national Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., with 12 independent regional Reserve Banks, including institutions like the Cleveland Fed[1]. This decentralized setup allows the Fed to closely monitor economic conditions across diverse regions, industries, and communities, while maintaining independence from short-term political influences[1]. ## Key Functions The Fed’s responsibilities are broad and vital to the U.S. economy. It conducts monetary policy—primarily by influencing interest rates—to achieve its employment and inflation goals[2]. The Fed also supervises and regulates banks to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system, works to minimize systemic risks, and fosters efficient payment and settlement systems[2]. Additionally, it promotes consumer protection and community development, addressing emerging issues through research, supervision, and enforcement of consumer laws[2]. ## History and Evolution The Federal Reserve is the third central bank in U.S. history, following two failed attempts in the 19th century[1]. Its creation was a response to the financial turbulence of the early 20th century, aiming to prevent crises and stabilize the economy. Over time, the Fed has evolved, adopting more transparent and inclusive policymaking processes. For example, it now conducts regular reviews of its monetary policy framework, engaging with academics, businesses, and the public to refine its strategies and communications[3][5]. ## Recent Developments and Achievements In 2025, the Fed completed its second major review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications, reaffirming its commitment to transparenc
CNBC
**CNBC: A Leader in Business News** CNBC, the Consumer News and Business Channel, is a premier global business news organization that has been a cornerstone of financial and business journalism for over three decades. Founded on April 17, 1989, CNBC's roots trace back to the Satellite Program Network (SPN), which later became Tempo Television before its relaunch under NBC's guidance[1][2]. Initially, it faced challenges gaining cable carriage due to competition from the Financial News Network (FNN), but following FNN's bankruptcy in 1991, CNBC acquired its operations and expanded its reach significantly[1]. **Key Achievements and Current Status** CNBC has grown exponentially, offering 23 hours of live programming daily across the U.S., Europe, and Asia. It operates a 24/7 digital platform, direct-to-consumer products, and a vibrant events business. Today, CNBC is the world's leading business news media company, reaching over 450 million consumers monthly[4]. It has been recognized for award-winning journalism and has been the first network to broadcast from the New York Stock Exchange floor. **Notable Aspects** - **Diverse Programming**: CNBC offers a wide range of programming, from business news to entertainment-focused shows like "Shark Tank" and "American Greed" through its CNBC Prime block[5]. - **Global Bureaus**: With more than 20 bureaus worldwide, CNBC provides comprehensive coverage of global business trends. - **Innovative Digital Presence**: CNBC's digital operations are robust, offering real-time news and analysis through its website and mobile apps. As CNBC continues to evolve, it remains committed to its founding promise of making business news accessible and relevant to a broad audience[4]. Its legacy as a leader in business journalism has been cemented through its dedication to quality reporting and innovative storytelling.
Council of Economic Advisers
The **Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)** is a key agency within the U.S. Executive Office of the President, established in 1946 by the Employment Act to provide the President with objective economic analysis and advice on both domestic and international economic policy[1][2][6]. Its core mission is to promote *maximum employment, production, and purchasing power* by offering data-driven insights that inform policy decisions[1][6]. The CEA is composed of a Chair and typically two to three additional economists, all appointed by the President, with the Chair requiring Senate confirmation[2]. Supported by a team of professional economists and staff, the Council analyzes complex economic indicators such as GDP, inflation, and unemployment to forecast economic trends and assess the impacts of proposed legislation or executive actions[1][4]. A fundamental output of the CEA is the **annual Economic Report of the President**, a comprehensive publication reviewing the previous year’s economic performance and outlining policy goals aligned with the administration’s agenda[2][3]. This report relies on authoritative data from sources like the Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics, making it a vital resource for policymakers, economists, and the public[2]. Historically, the CEA’s formation was rooted in post-World War II concerns about returning to economic depression, aiming to institutionalize Keynesian fiscal policy principles to maintain economic stability and growth[6]. Early internal disagreements about the Council’s role reflected differing views on whether it should be strictly impartial or politically engaged, but over time it has become an indispensable part of the policy process. The CEA not only advises the President directly but also participates in inter-agency deliberations, shaping economic policy proposals and public understanding through briefings, memos, and media engagement[4][5]. It often acts as a safeguard against poorly conceived policies by evaluating potential unintended consequences[8]. Notably, the CEA has been a training ground for prominent economists, including Nobel laureates like Paul Kru
