US Soybean Exports in Turmoil: China Tariffs and Shifts in Global Trade
US Soybean Exports Face Severe Challenges
US soybean farmers are grappling with a sharp drop in overseas sales as China, the largest buyer, blocks imports amid stalled trade negotiations. In 2025, shipments to China have plummeted by over 80%, a dramatic decline from previous years when China accounted for more than half of US soybean exports. The imposition of retaliatory tariffs and additional taxes has raised China’s overall duty on US soybeans to 34%, discouraging purchases and pushing China to source more from Brazil and Argentina instead.
Rising Stockpiles and Market Pressures
With the US soybean harvest underway and no clear sign of resumed Chinese buying, American farmers face growing storage challenges. Record corn production alongside soybeans may overwhelm available grain storage, potentially depressing basis prices. The shift in global trade flows threatens to leave US producers with surplus stockpiles and limited export markets, intensifying financial pressure on farms reliant on soybean sales.
Implications for Global Soybean Trade
The deepening trade rift reshapes global soybean dynamics, with Brazil setting export records to China in 2025. Without a trade deal, the US risks losing long-term market share, altering established supply chains and raising questions about the future of agricultural trade between Washington and Beijing.
