Top 5 Macro and Market Risks for 2026
Top 5 Macro and Market Risks for 2026
Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok has outlined five key downside scenarios investors should monitor in 2026. As global markets navigate shifting policy landscapes and economic cycles, Slok highlights risks ranging from fiscal policy reversals to geopolitical tensions that could disrupt capital flows and asset valuations.
Key Downside Scenarios
Among the top concerns are a potential AI-driven equity correction, especially in the Magnificent Seven stocks, and a slowdown in capex spending if tech optimism fades. Another risk is a reversal in global trade momentum, with protectionist policies or renewed trade conflicts dampening export growth. Additionally, tighter financial conditions or a hawkish pivot by central banks could pressure credit markets and corporate earnings.
Market Implications
Slok also warns of a possible softening in labor markets, not from weak demand but from constrained supply, and the impact of major fiscal stimulus fading after 2026. Investors should remain vigilant as these factors could reshape market dynamics and portfolio performance in the coming year.
About the Organizations Mentioned
Apollo Global Management
Apollo Global Management is a leading global alternative investment firm founded in 1990 by Leon Black, Joshua Harris, Marc Rowan, and Tony Ressler, all former Drexel Burnham Lambert bankers. The firm initially focused on distressed debt and leveraged buyouts, capitalizing on undervalued or distressed assets shortly after Drexel’s collapse[1][2][3][5]. Headquartered in New York City with offices worldwide, Apollo has evolved from a traditional private equity firm into a diversified asset manager with a strong emphasis on insurance and credit businesses[2][6]. Apollo’s growth trajectory includes significant milestones such as launching Apollo Investment Corporation in 1995 to expand into middle-market direct lending, acquiring Vail Resorts in 2004, and founding Athene Holding Ltd. in 2007, which marked its entry into the insurance sector[1][5]. The company went public in 2011, enhancing its capital access and market profile[1][2][5]. In 2022, Apollo merged fully with Athene, integrating its life insurance and annuities business to become a major player managing retirement savings alongside traditional private equity investments[5][6]. Today, Apollo manages over $750 billion in assets, making it one of the largest alternative asset managers globally. Its strategy includes private equity, credit, real estate, and insurance solutions, with a focus on creating value through opportunistic investments in distressed assets and stable returns via insurance liabilities[6][9]. The firm’s innovative approach combines asset-heavy insurance-backed credit with traditional investment management, aiming for repeatable superior returns and expanding its global wealth management capabilities[4][6]. Apollo’s leadership under CEO Marc Rowan continues to drive its transformation into a financial powerhouse with ambitions exceeding $1 trillion in assets under management[3][6]. Notably, Apollo’s story involves navigating complex regulatory environments, pioneering large leveraged buyouts, and evolving its business model to blend private equity with insurance-driven credit, distinguishing i
