Dolphins vs Steelers MNF Prediction: Betting Picks & Fantasy Outlook

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Dolphins vs Steelers Prediction, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Monday Night Football Game - Covers.com

Dolphins vs Steelers Prediction for Monday Night Football

Tonight's Week 15 Monday Night Football clash pits the 6-7 Miami Dolphins against the 7-6 Pittsburgh Steelers in a pivotal AFC showdown. Miami, clawing back from a dismal 1-6 start, eyes .500 behind Tua Tagovailoa's resurgence, while Pittsburgh aims to hold a game lead over Baltimore. Cold weather at 20 degrees favors the Steelers' home grit.[2]

Key Picks and ATS Analysis

Expect Pittsburgh to prevail 24-16, leveraging their 70% historical win rate in similar spots. Dolphins boast a 3-2 ATS in last five, but Steelers' recent 5-5 over 10 games and home edge (3-3) tilt odds. De'Von Achane's explosive runs could counter Pittsburgh's leaky defense, yet T.J. Watt's absence with a collapsed lung hurts Miami less than cold snaps their passing game.[1][2][3]

Best Bets and Fantasy Outlook

Best bet: Steelers -3.5, given Miami's 4-3 away ATS but struggles in chill. Over 38.5 points if Achane and Jaylen Waddle exploit red-zone leaks. Fantasy managers, start Achane heavily—he's key to breaking Miami's cold curse—and monitor Tua for upside against a vulnerable secondary.[2][3]

About the People Mentioned

Tua Tagovailoa

Tua Tagovailoa is an American football quarterback for the Miami Dolphins of the NFL, born on March 2, 1998, in Ewa Beach, Hawaii. Standing at 6'1" and weighing around 225-227 pounds, he rose to prominence at the University of Alabama, where he began as a backup freshman in 2017 before becoming a starter.[1][2][4] His college career peaked dramatically in the 2018 College Football Playoff National Championship against Georgia, when he entered in the second half and threw for 166 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, including a game-winning 41-yard touchdown pass on the final play to secure Alabama's national title and earn Offensive MVP honors.[1][3] As a sophomore in 2019, he earned SEC Offensive Player of the Year accolades from the Associated Press and coaches, made the All-SEC first team, and set program records like 444 passing yards and five touchdowns in a single game against South Carolina.[1] He finished as a finalist for the Davey O’Brien Award.[1] Selected fifth overall by the Dolphins in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, Tagovailoa has started 51 games with a career passer rating of 97.2, 12,472 passing yards, 81 touchdowns, and 37 interceptions.[2][3] Known for his accuracy, poise, and dual-threat ability, he has formed dynamic connections with receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, highlighted by long touchdown passes such as a 78-yard score to Hill.[5] As of early 2026, the 27-year-old remains active with Miami, though the team sits at 6-9 amid struggles, prompting discussions of benching and his fit with coach Mike McDaniel.[2][4] Recent reports note ongoing contract negotiations and his weight loss for improved mobility, dubbed "Skinny Tua," while he has participated in Pro Bowl events showcasing precision passing.[4] Tagovailoa's journey embodies resilience, from Hawaiian roots to NFL leadership.[3][6]

De'Von Achane

De'Von Achane is a professional American football running back for the Miami Dolphins in the NFL.[1][2][3] Born on October 13, 2001, in Missouri City, Texas, he stands 5'9" and weighs 191 pounds, known for his explosive speed demonstrated as a dual-sport athlete in football and track at Thurgood Marshall High School.[1][3][4] Achane earned the 2020 Texas Gatorade Boys Track and Field Athlete of the Year award and received college offers from programs like Alabama, Florida State, and Georgia before committing to Texas A&M under coach Jimbo Fisher.[1] In his freshman year (2020), he backed up Isaiah Spiller with 43 carries but earned Orange Bowl MVP honors after rushing for 140 yards and two touchdowns.[1] His sophomore season (2021) saw 130 carries and 24 receptions, while in 2022, his final year, he rushed for 1,102 yards, caught 36 passes, and added over 300 kick-return yards.[1] Selected by the Dolphins in the third round (84th overall) of the 2023 NFL Draft, Achane quickly emerged as a dynamic complement to Raheem Mostert in Mike McDaniel's scheme.[1][2][5] As a rookie in 2023, he played 11 games (4 starts), rushing 103 times for 800 yards (7.8 yards per carry) and 8 touchdowns, plus 27 receptions for 197 yards and 3 scores, totaling 11 touchdowns and ranking as a top-5 fantasy running back.[1][2] Entering his third season in 2025 at age 24, Achane has achieved career highs with 1,350 rushing yards (5.7 per carry), 67 receptions for 488 yards, and 12 total touchdowns over 16 games, leading Miami with 1,838 scrimmage yards—fifth in the NFL.[3] He recently posted 83 rushing yards and 29 receiving yards in a win over the Buccaneers, though he was listed doubtful for Week 18 with a minor shoulder injury, potentially missing the finale against the Patriots.[3] The Dolphins finished 6-9, with Achane remaining active and central to their offense.[3][5]

Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle is a professional American football wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins in the NFL. Born and raised in Houston, Texas, he attended Episcopal High School in Bellaire, where he displayed exceptional athleticism and versatility on the field.[4][6] Waddle then starred at the University of Alabama, earning recognition as a standout return specialist with a career 19.3 yards per punt return average, the highest among Crimson Tide returners.[1] During his college tenure, he posted multiple 100-yard receiving games, including 161 yards and a touchdown against Georgia, and earned SEC Special Teams Player of the Week honors after a 128-yard punt return performance versus Texas A&M.[1] Selected sixth overall by the Dolphins in the 2021 NFL Draft, Waddle quickly established himself as a dynamic playmaker alongside quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In his rookie season, he recorded 1,015 receiving yards and nine touchdowns over 16 games.[2][3] His career stats through the 2025 season include consistent production across five years with Miami, highlighted by explosive plays such as a 90-yard touchdown at Alabama and NFL highlights like a 142-yard receiving game and clutch fourth-down conversions.[1][3][4] Notable achievements encompass Pro Bowl selections and his role in high-speed offenses, often syncing with teammate Tyreek Hill.[4][5] At age 27, standing 5-10 and 185 pounds, Waddle remains a key asset for the Dolphins, thriving in recent seasons even amid injuries to peers like Hill.[4][5] As of late 2025, Miami retained him at the trade deadline amid rumors, underscoring his value; news emphasized his impact in games, with no trades materialized.[5] His speed, hands (9 1/4 inches), and return skills continue to make him a pivotal offensive and special teams contributor.[3][4]

T.J. Watt

**T.J. Watt: NFL Defensive Star** T.J. Watt is a **linebacker for the Pittsburgh Steelers** and one of the National Football League's most accomplished defensive players.[1][3] Born on October 11, 1994, in Waukesha, Wisconsin, Watt grew up in a sports-oriented family; his father played in the NFL, and his brothers are also professional athletes.[4] Watt played college football at the University of Wisconsin from 2013 to 2016, where he transitioned from tight end to outside linebacker.[1] After redshirting his freshman year due to injury, he became a standout defensive contributor, recording 63 tackles and seven sacks during his junior season.[4] The Pittsburgh Steelers selected him as the 30th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.[1] Since entering the NFL, Watt has established himself as an elite pass rusher and defensive force. In his rookie season, he recorded 54 tackles and 7 sacks.[1] His breakout 2018 campaign featured 68 tackles and 13 sacks, earning him his first Pro Bowl selection.[1] The following year, he led the NFL with 15 sacks and received First-Team All-Pro honors.[1] In 2020, Watt was named **NFL Defensive Player of the Year**, an achievement he repeated in 2021.[1][5] Throughout his career, Watt has amassed impressive statistics: 362 total tackles, 96.5 sacks, 27 forced fumbles, and 10 fumble recoveries across 104 games.[2] In the 2023 season, he played all 17 games, recording 59 tackles and 19 sacks.[2] His ability to disrupt plays, pressure quarterbacks, and create turnovers has been instrumental to the Steelers' defensive success. Recently, Watt underwent surgery to repair a partially collapsed lung suffered after treatment at the Steelers' facility.[6] Despite this setback, he remains an active roster member and continues to be a cornerstone of Pittsburgh's defense.

About the Organizations Mentioned

Miami Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins are a professional American football team based in Miami, Florida, competing in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) East division. Founded in 1966 as an expansion franchise in the American Football League (AFL), the Dolphins joined the NFL following the AFL-NFL merger in 1970[1][2][5]. The organization is renowned for its remarkable history and key achievements. Most notably, the Dolphins are the only NFL team to complete a perfect season, going undefeated through the entire 1972 regular season and playoffs, culminating in a victory in Super Bowl VII. This remarkable feat was led by Hall of Fame coach Don Shula and a roster featuring legendary players such as quarterback Bob Griese, running back Larry Csonka, and linebacker Nick Buoniconti. The Dolphins won two Super Bowls (VII and VIII) and made three consecutive Super Bowl appearances in the early 1970s, a pioneering achievement in NFL history[1][2][4][5]. Beyond the 1970s, the Dolphins maintained competitive status with five AFC championships and thirteen AFC East division titles. The team is also famous for quarterback Dan Marino, one of the most prolific passers in NFL history, who led the Dolphins to numerous playoff appearances and a Super Bowl XIX appearance during the 1980s and 1990s[2][3]. Currently, the Dolphins play at Hard Rock Stadium, a modern venue reflecting the franchise’s business growth and fan engagement. The team is valued at approximately $5.7 billion as of 2023, ranking among the NFL’s most valuable franchises[3]. Under recent leadership, including coach Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have experienced a resurgence, returning to playoff contention and setting new team records in 2023[3]. Notable aspects of the organization include its iconic aqua and orange colors, a strong fan base, and a legacy of innovation in tea

Pittsburgh Steelers

The **Pittsburgh Steelers** are a professional American football team based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with a rich history dating back to 1933. Founded by **Arthur J. Rooney, Sr.**, the team has been a cornerstone of the Western Pennsylvania community for nearly a century. The Steelers are a member of the National Football League (NFL), competing in the American Football Conference (AFC) North division. ### History and Achievements - **Championships**: The Steelers have achieved significant success, winning six Super Bowl titles (IX, X, XIII, XIV, XL, and XLIII) and numerous divisional championships. - **Community Engagement**: The organization is deeply involved in community outreach and charitable activities, reflecting its commitment to the local area[7]. - **Legacy**: The Steelers are known for their dedicated fan base, "Steeler Nation," and their iconic black and gold uniforms. ### Current Status - **2025 Season**: The Steelers are in their 93rd NFL season, with **Mike Tomlin** as head coach and **Omar Khan** as general manager. They are aiming to improve on recent performances and make a strong playoff push[1]. - **Coaching Staff**: Notable coaches include **Arthur Smith** as offensive coordinator and **Teryl Austin** as defensive coordinator[5]. - **Roster**: The team has seen significant changes, including the addition of quarterback **Aaron Rodgers**, who is expected to lead the offense[1]. ### Notable Aspects - **Business and Community Impact**: The Steelers have a strong business model, with a focus on community engagement and philanthropy. The team's commitment to family support has seen improvements, such as introducing game-day daycare[6]. - **Leadership**: The Steelers are led by **Art Rooney II**, who continues the family's legacy of community involvement and team management[7]. Despite challenges like the need for locker room renovations and improvements in strength training programs, the Steelers remain a

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