Fed Cuts Rates 0.25% as Powell Warns of No-Risk Path; 2026 Easing Outlook
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Fed Cuts Rates 0.25% Amid Powell's Cautionary Warning
The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% at its December 2025 meeting, marking the third cut this year following reductions in September and October. This move aligns with market expectations, bringing borrowing costs to their lowest since 2022 while the committee supports maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.[1][2][3]
Powell's 'No Risk-Free Path' and Divided FOMC
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized there's no risk-free path forward, highlighting economic uncertainties as the Fed assesses incoming data on inflation and labor trends. The decision saw dissent, with three members opposing the cut—two favoring no change and one pushing for 50 basis points—echoing divisions not seen since 2019.[1][2]
Outlook for 2026: Cautious Easing Ahead
Investors now eye 2026 projections, where officials signal at least one more cut but stress a data-driven approach amid sticky core inflation near 2.8% and rising unemployment risks. Economists like Claudia Sahm warn further easing could signal deeper troubles, urging caution in this balancing act.[3][4]
About the People Mentioned
Jerome Powell
Jerome H. Powell is the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States, a position he has held since February 2018 following his initial appointment by President Donald Trump and subsequent reappointment by President Joe Biden for a second four-year term in May 2022[2][5]. He also chairs the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s principal monetary policymaking body[2]. Powell’s tenure spans some of the most significant economic challenges in recent U.S. history, including the post-Great Recession recovery and the financial fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic[3][6]. Born on February 4, 1953, in Washington, D.C., Powell holds an AB in politics from Princeton University (1975) and a law degree from Georgetown University (1979), where he was editor-in-chief of the Georgetown Law Journal[2]. His career before the Fed included roles as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City, a partner at The Carlyle Group (1997–2005), and a visiting scholar at the Bipartisan Policy Center focusing on fiscal issues[2][5]. He served as both Assistant Secretary and Under Secretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush, with responsibilities for financial institutions and the Treasury debt market[2][5]. Powell was first nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by President Barack Obama in 2012 and assumed office in May of that year, later being reappointed for a term ending January 31, 2028[2][8]. As Fed Chair, he initially continued the policy of gradually raising interest rates—a process begun under his predecessor, Janet Yellen—to return monetary policy to more normal levels after the 2007–08 financial crisis[3]. This approach drew criticism from President Trump, who publicly opposed further rate hikes, but Powell maintained that such measures were necessary to prevent inflation and ensure long-term stability[3]. Powell’s leadership was again tested during the COVID-19 pandemic, when he led the Fed in slashing interest rates to near zero, launching emergency lending programs, and purchasing corporate debt to stabilize financial markets—actions that significantly expanded the central bank’s role in the economy[3]. Despite political pressures from both Democratic and Republican administrations, Powell has been praised for his steady, data-driven approach to monetary policy[6]. He resides in Chevy Chase, Maryland, with his wife and three children[6]. As of 2025, Powell remains a central figure in U.S. and global economic policy, overseeing the Fed’s efforts to balance inflation control with support for economic growth amid ongoing uncertainties in the financial landscape[2][5].
About the Organizations Mentioned
Federal Reserve
## Overview and Mission The Federal Reserve, often called the "Fed," is the central bank of the United States, established by Congress in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and stable monetary and financial system[1]. Its mission centers on a dual mandate from Congress: to promote maximum employment and maintain price stability, ensuring the dollar retains its value over time[1]. The Fed operates through a unique hybrid structure, combining a national Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., with 12 independent regional Reserve Banks, including institutions like the Cleveland Fed[1]. This decentralized setup allows the Fed to closely monitor economic conditions across diverse regions, industries, and communities, while maintaining independence from short-term political influences[1]. ## Key Functions The Fed’s responsibilities are broad and vital to the U.S. economy. It conducts monetary policy—primarily by influencing interest rates—to achieve its employment and inflation goals[2]. The Fed also supervises and regulates banks to ensure the safety and soundness of the financial system, works to minimize systemic risks, and fosters efficient payment and settlement systems[2]. Additionally, it promotes consumer protection and community development, addressing emerging issues through research, supervision, and enforcement of consumer laws[2]. ## History and Evolution The Federal Reserve is the third central bank in U.S. history, following two failed attempts in the 19th century[1]. Its creation was a response to the financial turbulence of the early 20th century, aiming to prevent crises and stabilize the economy. Over time, the Fed has evolved, adopting more transparent and inclusive policymaking processes. For example, it now conducts regular reviews of its monetary policy framework, engaging with academics, businesses, and the public to refine its strategies and communications[3][5]. ## Recent Developments and Achievements In 2025, the Fed completed its second major review of its monetary policy strategy, tools, and communications, reaffirming its commitment to transparenc
FOMC
The **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)** is the Federal Reserve System's pivotal body for setting U.S. monetary policy, steering the economy toward Congress's dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.[1][2][3] Established through the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 and formalized by the Banking Act of 1935, the FOMC evolved from earlier uncoordinated efforts by the twelve Federal Reserve Banks. Pre-1933, banks conducted open market operations separately or via groups like the 1923 Open Market Investment Committee, but the modern FOMC launched in March 1936 under Chairman Marriner Eccles, centralizing decisions on open market operations that influence the federal funds rate, asset holdings, and public communications.[1][5] Comprising **12 voting members**—seven Board of Governors, the New York Fed president (permanent), and four rotating Reserve Bank presidents—the group convenes eight times yearly, roughly every six weeks, to dissect economic data, financial markets, and forecasts from Fed economists. Non-voting presidents contribute insights, culminating in policy votes on tools like open market operations (the FOMC's domain), discount rates, and reserve requirements.[2][3][4][5] Post-meeting, statements, minutes (released after three weeks), and chair press briefings (four times yearly with economic projections) amplify transparency.[6] Key achievements include navigating crises: since 2008, the FOMC pioneered large-scale asset purchases (quantitative easing) to slash long-term rates, bolstering recovery amid recessions.[5] Its actions ripple through markets, swaying interest rates, credit, business investment, and household spending—making FOMC announcements among finance's most watched events.[3][6] Today, the FOMC remains robust, adapting tools to tame inflation or spur growth amid evolving challenges like tech-driven disruptions and global shocks. Its rigorous, data-fueled deliberations underscor
