Retail's Modest Holiday Gains Signal Cautious Optimism

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Ho hum holiday: Retail's early results show modest growth in critical shopping season - CNBC

Ho Hum Holiday: Retail's Modest Gains

Retailers kicked off 2025 holiday results with solid but underwhelming growth, hovering around 4% year-over-year, falling short of blockbuster expectations amid economic caution. Visa reported a 4.2% rise in spending from November 1, while Mastercard noted 3.9%, aligning with National Retail Federation forecasts of 3.7% to 4.2% for a trillion-dollar season. Consumers blended savvy strategies, prioritizing family gifts despite inflation and tariff worries.

Ecommerce Surge Meets In-Store Stability

Ecommerce outpaced physical stores, surging 7.4% per Mastercard and 7.8% via Visa, yet brick-and-mortar captured 73% of volume. December data from NRF's Retail Monitor showed 4.1% holiday growth, boosted by a late Thanksgiving shifting Cyber Monday sales. Shoppers hunted deals early, leveraging Black Friday promotions, while AI drove significant online traffic and $262 billion in spend, per Salesforce insights.

Consumer Caution Shapes the Season

Amid predictions of higher prices—77% of Deloitte surveyed shoppers expected them—spending dipped on non-essentials like decor, favoring value and buy-now-pay-later options. Strong December surges in clothing and electronics underscored resilience, reaffirming consumer confidence on solid footing without fireworks.

About the Organizations Mentioned

Visa

**Visa** is a global leader in digital payments, operating as a technology company that connects consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments across more than 220 countries and territories, facilitating secure and innovative transactions without issuing cards itself.[3][5] It powers a vast network processing **329 billion transactions** annually, with a total volume of **$16.1 trillion**, through its VisaNet system capable of handling **65,000 transactions per second**.[4][5] Founded in 1958 when Bank of America launched the first consumer credit card program in the U.S., Visa expanded internationally in 1974, introduced debit cards in 1975, and consolidated into Visa Inc. in 2007 before its landmark 2008 IPO—one of history's largest.[3] This evolution transformed it from a regional player into a financial powerhouse, boasting **4.8 billion cards**, partnerships with **~14,500 financial institutions**, and **150 million+ merchant locations**.[5] Key achievements include pioneering contactless payments, digital wallets, biometric verification, and real-time processing via platforms like Visa Direct, while generating **$32.7 billion in net revenue in 2023** (up 11% year-over-year) through service fees, data processing, international fees, and value-added services like fraud detection.[1][2][4] Its four-party model—linking issuers, acquirers, merchants, and consumers—delivers economies of scale with high margins, low credit risk, and network effects that deter competitors.[4][6] Today, Visa maintains dominance over rivals like Mastercard, leveraging data analytics, intellectual property, and innovations in virtual cards and government benefit distribution.[1][2][5] With a brand value of **$191 billion** (ranking 7th globally), it continues uplifting economies by enabling inclusive, reliable payments amid rising digital adoption.[2][5] Challenges from fintechs persist, but Visa's infrastructure

Mastercard

**Mastercard** is a global financial technology company that operates a vast payment network, connecting banks, merchants, and consumers to enable secure electronic funds transfers via debit, credit, and prepaid cards branded with its logo.[1][3][5] Rather than issuing cards directly, it earns fees from transaction processing, cross-border assessments, and value-added services like fraud detection, data analytics, and consulting, processing over 125 billion transactions annually across more than 200 countries.[2][4] Founded in 1966 as a member-owned association by U.S. bankers, Mastercard expanded internationally by 1968 into Mexico, Japan, and Europe.[5] The 1980s saw growth with products like Maestro, while 2002's merger with Europay created a unified global structure. It went public in 2006 (NYSE: MA), adopting a three-tiered model as franchisor, processor, and advisor. Key milestones include launching Mastercard Advisors in 2001, establishing Mastercard Labs in 2010 for innovation, and acquiring firms like DataCash and Travelex's prepaid operations.[5] Achievements highlight its dominance alongside Visa in digital payments, fueled by network effects that create formidable barriers to entry.[4] Innovations in contactless payments, mobile wallets, AI-driven fraud prevention, open banking, real-time transfers, and B2B tools like Mastercard Send and Track have transformed it from a card network into a fintech platform offering APIs, loyalty programs, and supply chain financing.[2][3] Today, Mastercard thrives as a steady growth compounder, leveraging data for insights and expanding into cybersecurity, financial inclusion, and biometric transactions.[1][2][8] Its resilient model—tied to transaction volume rather than credit risk—powers an inclusive digital economy, benefiting consumers, businesses, and governments worldwide.[6][8] (298 words)

National Retail Federation

The National Retail Federation (NRF) is the world’s largest retail trade association, representing over 3.8 million retail establishments in the United States and supporting more than 52 million employees—making retail the nation’s largest private-sector employer[1][2][4]. Founded in 1911 as the National Retail Dry Goods Association, the organization evolved through several name changes and mergers, including a 1990 merger with the American Retail Federation to form the current NRF[1]. Today, its membership spans department stores, specialty shops, online retailers, grocery stores, restaurants, and more, serving as an umbrella for over 100 state, national, and international retail associations[1][2]. ## Mission and Activities NRF’s core mission is to advocate for the retail industry’s interests, shaping policy on labor, commerce, healthcare, and technology[2][3]. It lobbies government, provides industry research, and offers educational programs through its philanthropic arm, the NRF Foundation, which also supports workforce development and scholarships for retail careers[2][4]. The organization is a key voice on issues like organized retail crime, supply chain resilience, and digital transformation, influencing both public policy and industry standards[1][3]. ## Key Achievements and Influence NRF has been recognized as one of the top lobbying organizations in the U.S., with a significant impact on legislation affecting retail[3]. It hosts major industry events, most notably “Retail’s Big Show” in New York City, which attracts tens of thousands of professionals and showcases cutting-edge retail technology and trends[2][5]. NRF also drives innovation through councils focused on information technology and retail standards, helping shape the adoption of new technologies across the sector[3]. ## Current Status and Notable Aspects As of 2024, NRF continues to expand its global reach, hosting events worldwide and partnering with academic institutions like Georgetown University to advance retail research[4][5]. The organization

Deloitte

**Deloitte** is the world's largest global professional services network, delivering industry-leading **audit, consulting, tax, and advisory services** to nearly 90% of the Fortune Global 500® and thousands of private companies, including over 9,000 U.S.-based firms.[1][2][3] Founded over **180 years ago**, Deloitte has evolved into a powerhouse spanning more than 150 countries and territories, with approximately **470,000 professionals** worldwide who blend business acumen, technology expertise, and strategic alliances to tackle complex challenges and drive client transformation.[1][2][3][4] Its network of independent member firms, under Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited (DTTL), empowers organizations to reinforce public trust in capital markets while fostering long-term progress.[2] Key **achievements** include pioneering thought leadership like the annual **Tech Trends 2026** report, which highlights AI's shift from experimentation to core functions—such as robotics embodiment, agent-first processes, hybrid compute strategies, cybersecurity paradoxes, and tech organization rebuilds—and the **2026 TMT Predictions**, forecasting AI's disruption in hardware, software, telecom, and media.[3][6][8][10] Deloitte's **Finance Trends 2026** survey positions finance leaders as strategic advisors optimizing costs and AI investments, while industry outlooks cover manufacturing, power/utilities, and more.[4][7][9] Currently, Deloitte thrives as a forward-thinking innovator, headlining **CES 2026** (January 6–9) with sessions on AI enterprise transformation, future health (e.g., wellness investments saving trillions), smart living, and partnerships like McLaren Racing's digital twins for peak performance.[1][5] Its purpose—"making an impact that matters"—fuels initiatives in digital capabilities, breakthrough innovations, and reimagined business models amid rapid AI evolution.[1][3] Notably

Salesforce

## Overview Salesforce is a global leader in cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) software, headquartered in San Francisco[1]. Founded in March 1999 by Marc Benioff and three co-founders—all former Oracle executives—Salesforce pioneered the software-as-a-service (SaaS) model, delivering business applications via the internet rather than through on-premises installations[1]. This approach revolutionized enterprise software, offering simplicity, scalability, and accessibility from anywhere in the world[3]. ## Core Offerings Salesforce’s primary product is its CRM platform, which enables organizations to manage sales, customer service, marketing, commerce, and IT processes on a unified, AI-driven platform[1][5]. The company’s ecosystem includes specialized “Cloud” products—such as Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Commerce Cloud—each tailored to different business functions[3]. These tools help companies of all sizes gain a 360-degree view of their customers, streamline operations, and leverage data analytics for actionable insights[1][2]. Beyond CRM, Salesforce has expanded through strategic acquisitions, including MuleSoft for integration and Tableau for advanced analytics, further embedding itself in the enterprise technology stack[3]. The platform is highly extensible, with thousands of third-party applications available via AppExchange, and is supported by Trailhead, Salesforce’s free online learning platform for skill development[2]. ## Growth and Achievements Salesforce has grown from a disruptive startup into a multi-billion-dollar enterprise, reporting $31.3 billion in revenue for its most recent fiscal year—an 18% increase over the previous year[1]. It is consistently ranked as the world’s #1 CRM provider by market share and innovation[5][6]. The company’s success is rooted in a customer-centric culture, continuous technological innovation, and a commitment to trust and transparency[4]. ## Current Status and Notable Aspects Today, Salesforce is at the forefront of integrating

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