Thailand Election Shock: Move Forward Upends Pheu Thai as Youth Turnout Rewrites the Map

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Thailand election: The result the polls never saw coming - BBC

Thailand Election: The Shock Result Polls Missed

Thailand's 2023 general election delivered a stunning upset, with the youthful Move Forward Party securing 151 seats, far surpassing expectations and toppling pre-poll favorites like Pheu Thai, which took 141. Analysts hailed it as a "wind of change," driven by record 75% turnout among young voters rejecting military-backed rule.[1][2]

Why Progressive Move Forward Triumphed Over Traditional Rivals

Contrary to polls predicting a Pheu Thai victory, Move Forward swept Bangkok and appealed to millennials with bold promises to reform strict lese majeste laws, boost minimum wages, and legalize medical marijuana. Old-style parties like Bhumjaithai (71 seats) relied on transactional alliances and rural patronage, but urban youth turnout shattered their hold. This shift broke Pheu Thai's long dominance since 2001.[1][2]

Implications for Thailand's Political Future

Despite no majority, opposition strength signals deepening divides. With 67 parties represented and investigations into fraud complaints ongoing, coalition-building will test leaders like Pita Limjaroenrat. Women's seats rose to 19%, hinting at progressive gains amid uncertainty.[1][2]

About the Organizations Mentioned

Move Forward Party

**The Move Forward Party (MFP)** is a progressive Thai political party focused on democratic reforms, human rights, and challenging military-monarchy dominance through parliamentary and movement-based activism.[1][3] Evolving from the **Future Forward Party**, founded in 2018 by auto tycoon **Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit** and allies like Chaitawat Tulathon, it positioned as a centrist, people-oriented force opposing military rule. Future Forward's 2019 campaign featured bold policies like ending conscription and orange branding to bridge Thailand's red-yellow divide, but it dissolved in 2020 amid establishment pressure.[1][4] Reborn as MFP, it deepened ties with youth-led protests demanding monarchical reform, bailing out leaders and channeling street demands into parliament, morphing into a "movement party."[1] **Key achievements** include topping the 2023 election with **151 seats**, Thailand's largest single-party bloc, on pledges to amend the draconian **lèse-majesté law** (Article 112), aligning with UN human rights calls.[1][2][3][4] Despite this, MFP was blocked from government by junta-appointed senators favoring conservative allies.[5] On **August 7, 2024**, Thailand's Constitutional Court dissolved MFP, banning executives like leader **Pita Limjaroenrat** for 10 years, deeming reform pledges an overthrow attempt—a move decried as undemocratic "lawfare" echoing post-2006 coups.[2][3][4] Its MPs reformed as the **People’s Party**, retaining House dominance and poll leads ahead of 2027 elections, prioritizing electoral wins over protests amid government woes.[2][3] Notably tech-savvy and youth-driven, MFP embodies Thailand's generational clash: progressive ideals versus entrenched illiberalism. With 2026 referendum backing ne

Pheu Thai

**Pheu Thai Party (พรรคเพื่อไทย)** is a major Thai political organization headquartered in Bangkok, focused on populist economic policies, social reforms, and safeguarding national sovereignty.[1][4] As the third iteration of Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai Party—founded in the early 2000s—it emerged in 2008 after military coups ousted Thaksin and his sister Yingluck Shinawatra from power.[1][2][4][5] Historically, Pheu Thai championed pro-democracy and equality initiatives, notably introducing universal healthcare and other benefits during Thaksin's tenure, despite controversies like extrajudicial actions and media pressures.[2] The party twice saw its prime ministers removed by coups, cementing its image as a populist force against elites, though it avoided radical changes like lese-majeste reform.[2] Key achievements include securing strong electoral showings, such as Yingluck's 2011 win, and pushing policies like digital wallets, minimum wage hikes, and constitutional tweaks.[1] In recent politics, Pheu Thai pivoted strategically post-2023 elections: after progressive Move Forward topped votes but was blocked by military senators, Pheu Thai formed a coalition with conservative parties, excluding Move Forward and enabling Paetongtarn Shinawatra's premiership—Thaksin's daughter.[2] This move drew youth protests, branding it as establishment-aligned.[2] Currently, as of early 2026, Pheu Thai anchors Thailand's ruling coalition, vowing to resolve border tensions with Cambodia and shut scam operations ahead of polls.[1] Leader Julapun Amornvivat emphasizes democratic commitment, accepting outcomes and eyeing 80-100 seats in recent votes while scrutinizing irregularities.[3] Though transactional, its digital economy push resonates in business-tech circles, blending populism with pragmatic governance amid Thailand's volatile politics.[1]

Bhumjaithai

Bhumjaithai is a major conservative populist political party in Thailand, founded in 2008 and headquartered in Bangkok. It blends conservatism, populism, and economic liberalism with a focus on welfare-oriented development, traditional values, and loyalty to the monarchy. The party is known for promoting tourism, decentralizing financial power, and enhancing public safety, with a landmark achievement being the successful liberalization of Thailand’s cannabis policy, which has attracted international attention[1]. Emerging from a split with the Pheu Thai Party’s predecessor in 2008, Bhumjaithai was founded by Newin Chidchob, a politician turned sports mogul, who serves as the party’s chief strategist. Under his guidance, the party has expanded its influence beyond its Northeast stronghold into Central and Southern Thailand, breaking into regions traditionally controlled by other major parties like the Democrats[2][3]. By the 2023 general election, it had grown significantly, capturing nearly 100 parliamentary seats and consolidating power in multiple regions, including Buri Ram and parts of the South[3]. In 2025, Bhumjaithai reached a new milestone when its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, became Thailand’s prime minister, heading a minority coalition government. Anutin has pursued a technocratic approach, bringing in outside experts to key cabinet positions to boost economic performance and governance credibility—an effort to strengthen business confidence and broaden the party’s appeal beyond its traditional base[4][6]. Bhumjaithai is increasingly viewed as a pivotal power broker in Thai politics, aiming to replace the historically dominant Democrat and Pheu Thai parties as a central political pillar. Its adaptability to shifting political landscapes and electoral systems, combined with strategic expansion and technocratic governance, positions it as a formidable force shaping Thailand’s political and economic future[2][3][5].

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