Escalating Drone Warfare Reshapes the Russo-Ukrainian War: ISW Assessment, December 29, 2025
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2025
The Institute for the Study of War's latest assessment reveals escalating tensions as the Kremlin accuses Ukraine of launching a daring long-range drone strike on President Vladimir Putin's residence on December 29. This bold claim underscores the intensifying drone warfare defining the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, where both sides target critical assets deep in enemy territory.[4]
Escalating Drone Warfare Dynamics
Building on prior Ukrainian strikes against Russian defense infrastructure on December 23-24, this alleged attack highlights Ukraine's growing capability in precision long-range operations. Russian forces, meanwhile, intensify assaults on Ukrainian supply lines in Kupyansk using FPV kamikaze drones, destroying armored vehicles and disrupting troop rotations. Such tit-for-tat actions reflect a fluid battlefield, with no confirmed advances in Siversk despite ongoing offensives.[2][3][5]
Strategic Implications for 2026
This incident may provoke sharper Russian retaliation, potentially targeting Ukrainian leadership or energy grids, as seen in prior massive air attacks killing civilians across cities. The ISW notes entrenched positions amid fluid maneuvers, signaling prolonged attrition. As 2025 ends, stakeholders watch for diplomatic ripples from this high-stakes escalation.[1][7]
About the People Mentioned
Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin is the current President of Russia, a position he has held for multiple terms since 2000, with a brief interlude as Prime Minister from 2008 to 2012[1][3]. Born in Leningrad (now Saint Petersburg) in 1952, Putin began his career in the Soviet Union’s security services, joining the KGB in 1975 and rising to the rank of Lieutenant Colonel by the time he left in 1991, following postings in East Germany and Leningrad[4]. After the Soviet Union’s collapse, he transitioned into politics, serving as an adviser to Saint Petersburg Mayor Anatoly Sobchak and later moving to Moscow, where he held various administrative roles under President Boris Yeltsin[6]. Putin was appointed Prime Minister in August 1999 and became acting President when Yeltsin unexpectedly resigned that December[3][6]. He won his first presidential election in March 2000, promising to stabilize Russia’s economy and political system after the tumultuous 1990s[3][7]. During his initial terms, he centralized power, reasserted federal control over Russia’s regions, and curtailed the influence of the country’s oligarchs through legal and economic measures[7]. Putin was re-elected in 2004 but, due to constitutional term limits, stepped aside in 2008, becoming Prime Minister under his successor Dmitry Medvedev, while retaining significant influence[3]. Constitutional amendments later extended presidential terms, and Putin returned to the presidency in 2012[1]. Putin’s time in office has been marked by assertive foreign policy, including military interventions in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad and the 2014 annexation of Crimea, which led to international sanctions[1]. Domestically, his tenure has seen increased state control over media, the suppression of political opposition, and constitutional changes consolidating executive authority[1]. In 2022, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine triggered a major international crisis, further isolating Russia from the West and prompting widespread condemnation[1]. As of 2025, Putin remains a dominant figure in Russian politics, having secured another term in office through constitutional changes that allow him to potentially remain president until 2036[1]. His leadership continues to shape Russia’s domestic trajectory and its role in global affairs, amid ongoing conflict in Ukraine and strained relations with NATO and Western countries[1].
About the Organizations Mentioned
Institute for the Study of War
The **Institute for the Study of War (ISW)** is a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit think tank founded in 2007 by military historian Kimberly Kagan to advance informed understanding of military affairs through research, analysis, and education, aiming to bolster U.S. national security strategy.[1][5][6] Born amid the Iraq and Afghanistan wars' stagnation, ISW started without initial funding but quickly gained traction by producing timely reports on military operations, enemy threats, and political trends in conflict zones.[1][5] Core funding comes from U.S. military contractors, enabling open-source intelligence (OSINT) work that informs policymakers, journalists, and the public.[1][2] Its board features retired U.S. military leaders, politicians, and business figures, ensuring non-partisan credibility.[2] ISW's **key achievements** include pioneering projects like the Afghanistan Project (tracking Taliban networks and elections) and the 2011 Middle East Security Project (analyzing Iran's influence, Syria, and the Arab Spring).[1][5] It issued early warnings on ISIS's 2014 rise, producing influential maps of terrain control that shaped global discourse.[5] During Russia's Ukraine invasion, ISW's daily updates and orders-of-battle assessments became essential for U.S. leaders and media; in 2023, it topped foreign policy think tanks in global mentions.[5] Other milestones: Mahsa Amini Iran protest maps and Russia strategy reports highlighting Western resolve gaps.[1][5] Currently, ISW leads in OSINT with daily maps, campaign assessments, and forecasts on Ukraine, Gaza, and emerging threats via the General Jack Keane Center.[3][6][8] It runs a War Studies Program for young talent, studying hybrid warfare and civil-military relations.[3] Analysts immerse in conflict zones, blending demographics, terrain, and history for holistic insights.[2] For business and tech audiences, ISW's OSINT innovations
